| |
DTN Midday Livestock Comments 09/09 11:41
Cattle Aim to Recover Some of Last Week's Downturn
Heading into Monday afternoon, the cattle contracts are trading higher while
the lean hog complex continues to drift lower.
ShayLe Stewart
DTN Livestock Analyst
GENERAL COMMENTS:
Thus far, Monday's market has been mixed as traders are eager and willing to
help the cattle contracts move higher but are reluctant to help the lean hog
complex. Demand in both the pork and beef markets will be a key factor traders
monitor this week as they're desperate for better fundamental support. December
corn is up 3/4 cent per bushel and December soybean meal is up $1.60. The Dow
Jones Industrial Average is up 633.96 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
The live cattle complex is posting a modest bounce following late last
week's gruesome decline. At Monday's noon hour, all live cattle contracts are
posting gains above $1.00, and this is aiding the feeder cattle contracts to
higher price points as well. The market has been challenged significantly since
the beginning of July, so it's too soon to say what kind of support Monday's
higher trend brings. October live cattle are up $1.62 at $176.82, December live
cattle are up $1.90 at $176.60, and February live cattle are up $1.95 at
$177.35. It's too early in the week for asking prices or bids to have been
posted yet, but with packers strategically buying cattle with time over the
last couple weeks, feedlot managers are going to be hard pressed to get prices
to trade steady.
Last week Southern live cattle traded for mostly $181, which is $2.00 lower
than the previous week's weighted average, and Northern dressed cattle traded
for mostly $288, which is also $2.00 lower than the previous week's weighted
average. Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 67,595 head. Of that
68% (45,760 head) were committed to the nearby delivery, while the remaining
32% (21,835 head) were committed to the deferred delivery.
Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $0.20 ($309.61) and select up $3.94
($300.06) with a movement of 57 loads (25.12 loads of choice, 10.73 loads of
select, 10.00 loads of trim and 11.46 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
The cattle complex has danced back and forth, but as we approach Monday's
noon hour, with the added support of the higher trading live cattle complex,
the feeder cattle contracts are also trading higher. September feeders are up
$2.62 at $236.92, October feeders are up $3.40 at $234.35, and November feeders
are up $2.80 at $230.82. So long as the live cattle complex continues to trade
higher, feeders shouldn't struggle to keep their higher tone through Monday's
close. It's a relief to see the complex trading higher as Friday's close was at
support levels and if traders would have elected to send the feeder cattle
market trading lower this morning, it's anyone's guess where new technical
support would have been found at.
LEAN HOGS:
The lean hog complex isn't as quick to turn and change direction as the
cattle contracts are. Most of the lean hog contracts are still trading lower as
traders want to see substantial fundamental support before they'll again
advance the board. Midday pork cutout values are higher, but traders are more
interested in seeing what Monday's afternoon prices do as that's a better
indication of the market's true consumer support. October lean hogs are down
$0.32 at $79.17, December lean hogs are down $0.10 at $71.12, and February lean
hogs are down $0.17 at $74.72.
The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 9/6/2024 is down $0.50 at $85.74, and
the actual index for 9/5/2024 is down $0.19 at $86.24. Hog prices are
unavailable on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report due to confidentiality.
However, we can see that only 147 head have traded, and the market's five-day
rolling average now sits at $78.14. Pork cutouts total 164.45 loads with 132.20
loads of pork cuts and 32.25 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.78,
$97.88.
ShayLe Stewart can be reached shayle.stewart@dtn.com
**
If you're planning to attend Husker Harvest Days in Grand Island, Nebraska,
be sure and check out the DTN building to learn more about our latest products
and efforts. You'll also want to sit in on our weather and markets outlooks
from Ag Meteorologist John Baranick and Lead Analyst Todd Hultman. The outlook
sessions are at 10:00 a.m. CDT and 2 p.m. CDT on Sept. 10 and 11. On Sept. 12
we'll have a weather outlook at 10:00 a.m. Hultman will be covering the USDA
WASDE report, which comes out at 11:00 a.m. CDT, and hosting a webinar
discussion about the report at 12:30 p.m. To register for the free webinar, go
to https://www.dtn.com/wasde-webinars/
(c) Copyright 2024 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.
Get your local Cash Bids emailed to you each morning from DTN – click here to sign up for DTN Snapshot.
|
|
