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DTN Midday Livestock Comments 04/28 11:46
Cattle Continue to Break Into New Technical Territory and Trade Higher
The livestock complex is again trading higher as traders continue to be
fueled by the fundamental support in which the market currently obtains.
ShayLe Stewart
DTN Livestock Analyst
GENERAL COMMENTS:
Mondays can be mundane and boring, but today is anything but the status quo.
All three of the livestock markets are trading higher into Monday's noon hour
and given the tremendous support seen last week in the cattle complex, it's
likely that traders will continue to support the contracts amid such powerful
fundamental support. May corn is down 1 cent per bushel and May soybean meal is
down $2.40. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 123.90 points and the
NASDAQ is down 217.97 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
The live cattle complex is continuing to lean into Monday trade, fully
taking advantage of all the support traders are willing to lend. June live
cattle are up $1.47 at $209.72, August live cattle are up $1.22 at $205.32 and
October live cattle are up $1.12 at $203.10. Later this week, the spot April
contract will expire, and the June live cattle contract will take front and
center stage. Currently, the market's bullish push has already put the June
contract at yet another new contract high. New showlists appear to be mixed,
higher in Kansas, but lower in Texas and Nebraska/Colorado.
Last week's cash cattle trade was delayed until Friday, and feedlot
managers' patient marketing strategy paid dividends as prices were sharply
higher. Live cattle in Kansas traded for mostly $213, which is $3 higher than
the previous week's weighted average. Live cattle in Texas traded for mostly
$212, which is $2 higher than the previous week's weighted average. Northern
dressed cattle traded at mostly $342 to $343, which is $5 to $6 higher than the
previous week's weighed average. Depending on what Monday's USDA reports share
in regards to weighted averages, it's likely that these prices are new record
highs for most of the areas.
Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $5.14 ($341.62) and select up $3.74
($323.85) with a movement of 37 loads (19.78 loads of choice, 6.29 loads of
select, 5.92 loads of trim and 4.61 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
It's been intriguing to watch the feeder cattle complex trade this morning
as at the market's start, the spot August contract gapped higher, then shortly
thereafter, traders filled in the gap but have since again pushed the contract
back higher. The live cattle complex was thankful to see fed cash cattle prices
trade higher last week, but the feeder cattle complex hasn't been short of
support either as demand in the countryside has been red hot, with buyers
knowing that the turn out season is rapidly approaching. May feeders are up
$1.52 at $292.05, August feeders are up $0.65 at $294.92 and September feeders
are up $0.55 at $294.10.
LEAN HOGS:
The lean hog complex is continuing to rally on the momentum which the market
possessed last week. If traders are going to break through the resistance
created last Friday in the spot June contract, they're going to need to see
tremendous fundamental support again this week. And while midday pork cutout
values are mildly higher, steady and stable demand is more of what they're
looking for. June lean hogs are down $0.05 at $101.07, July lean hogs are up
$0.12 at $101.30 and August lean hogs are up $0.17 at $99.25.
The projected lean hog index for 4/25/2025 is up $0.64 at $88.18, and the
actual index for 4/24/2025 is up $0.27 at $87.54. Hog prices are unavailable on
the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report because of confidentiality. However, we can
see that only 847 head have traded this morning, and that the market's five-day
rolling average now sits at $90.79. Pork cutouts total 167.72 loads with 136.45
loads of pork cuts and 31.26 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.10,
$98.14.
ShayLe Stewart can be reached shayle.stewart@dtn.com
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